Speculation about Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation has intensified following recent reports from two major Canadian newspapers, but Polymarket bettors remain cautious about the timing of such an announcement.

Although discussions about Trudeau stepping down have been ongoing for some time, two prominent contracts on Polymarket have gained significant attention. These contracts are focused on whether Trudeau will resign by February or April, and another, from December, is concerned with the possibility of opposition parties pushing for an election by spring.

The latest surge in interest came on Monday after both the Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail published reports suggesting Trudeau’s resignation could happen as soon as Monday, or before Wednesday’s upcoming national Liberal Party caucus meeting. The Toronto Star indicated a resignation could happen immediately, while the Globe and Mail, which first broke the story, suggested it would come before Wednesday’s meeting.

Despite these reports, bettors on Polymarket are more hesitant to predict an imminent departure. A contract asking if Trudeau will resign by Monday has just over $45,000 in volume but only places the chances at 24%. Another contract, speculating a resignation by Wednesday, gives it a 72% likelihood, though it has a smaller volume of around $10,000. A third contract, asking whether Trudeau will leave by Friday, puts the chances at 80%.

Though the Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail have sources claiming Trudeau’s resignation is likely, Reuters, citing a different source, states that Trudeau has not yet made a decision.

Polls also reflect a turbulent situation for Trudeau, with Angus Reid giving him a 22% approval rating. Current polling suggests that if an election were held today, Trudeau’s Liberal Party would suffer heavy losses, winning only 46 seats, while the Conservative Party would take 225, securing a clear majority in Canada’s Parliament.

In a more lighthearted vein, Polymarket bettors are also wagering on the chance that Canada could become the 51st U.S. state by July, a humorous idea that originally gained traction through President-elect Donald Trump’s social media posts.