Bitcoin’s 36% Surge in November Positions It for Major Milestones, Eyes $100,000

Bitcoin has posted a remarkable 36% increase in November, marking one of its strongest months since October 2021. As the month draws to a close, Bitcoin is on track to secure its fourth-best monthly performance in over two years, according to data from CoinGlass.

This surge places November behind only February 2024 (44%), January 2023 (40%), and October 2021 (40%) in terms of monthly gains. Analysts attribute part of the recent strength to renewed investor optimism following the results of the U.S. presidential election, where Donald Trump’s victory gave a boost to cryptocurrencies tied to U.S.-based entities like Ripple Labs, the creator of XRP.

Bitcoin’s price is now closing in on the psychological $100,000 mark, just 4% away from hitting this key level. The recent expiration of $9 billion in Bitcoin options has also played a role in pushing the price above $96,000. With only two days left in November, there is still potential for Bitcoin to surpass this milestone before the month officially closes.

On a quarterly scale, Bitcoin is up 51% for Q4, with December still ahead. Historically, December has provided an average return of about 5%, which could push the fourth quarter to its strongest performance since Q1, which saw an impressive 69% gain.

Experts believe Bitcoin is poised for further gains, with some predicting that it could soon surpass the $100,000 threshold. Analyst Caleb Franzen is confident that the current bull market still has room to grow. “Bitcoin’s monthly RSI is currently at 75, which is well below the 90 level typically seen at the peak of bull markets,” Franzen noted. “This indicates that Bitcoin’s momentum is not yet overbought, leaving plenty of upside potential in the months and quarters ahead.”

Parallels with Q4 2020’s Market Structure

The current market structure for Bitcoin mirrors that of Q4 2020, when strong gains in October and November were followed by a slight correction over the Thanksgiving period. In late 2020, this correction coincided with Bitcoin’s breakout past the $10,000 mark, which eventually propelled it to $60,000 by April 2021.

Glassnode’s data suggests that Bitcoin’s price remaining above its short-term holder realized price (STHRP) is a strong signal of a bull market. In Q4 2020, Bitcoin consistently found support at the STHRP level, allowing the price to continue climbing. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could continue rising, using the STHRP as a support level.

STHRP measures the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin held for less than 155 days and is often used as a proxy for coins that are more likely to be spent. In contrast, the long-term holder realized price (LTHRP) represents the average acquisition price for coins held for over 155 days and is typically a stronger indicator of coins that are less likely to be sold. A growing divergence between the realized price and LTHRP suggests that new market participants are entering, while long-term holders are realizing profits or adjusting their positions.

Could Bitcoin Reach $100,000 by November 29?

A historical data point raises the possibility that Bitcoin could hit $100,000 as early as November 29. Bitcoin first reached $1,000 on November 27, 2013, and four years later, it touched $10,000 on November 28, 2017. If this pattern continues, Bitcoin could reach the $100,000 mark just seven years after surpassing $10,000 in 2017.

With strong technical indicators, increasing institutional interest, and positive sentiment from the broader market, Bitcoin’s rise toward $100,000 seems inevitable. The next few months could be pivotal for Bitcoin as it positions itself for all-time highs and further growth.