Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a significant challenge in breaking the $100,000 mark, with a $384 million “sell wall” standing between the current price and the six-figure milestone. However, supply data shows a growing accumulation trend, signaling increasing pressure for upward price movement.
The term “illiquid supply” refers to Bitcoin held by long-term holders (LTHs) who are not actively trading their coins. According to Glassnode data, illiquid supply has surged by over 185,000 BTC in the last 30 days, bringing the total to a new all-time high of 14.8 million BTC. This represents 75% of the total circulating supply, which is just under 20 million BTC (with a maximum supply of 21 million). This surge is the second-largest 30-day increase this year, indicating that investors are holding rather than selling.
CoinDesk’s previous research suggests that LTHs have recently shifted from selling to accumulating, adding more than 2,000 BTC to their holdings since November 26. This change suggests that the period of profit-taking is nearing its end, potentially removing some selling pressure from the market.
Bitcoin has also been exiting exchanges rapidly since the beginning of the latest bull run in early November. This marks a break from the nearly two-year trend of stable Bitcoin levels on exchanges, signaling stronger demand from long-term investors. However, a broader view over the past five years shows that Bitcoin on exchanges has remained relatively steady between 2.7 million and 3.3 million BTC.
For Bitcoin to sustain a bull run, it needs to continue flowing off exchanges, a sign of investor demand rather than speculative demand driven by derivatives markets.
“Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has reached an all-time high, while the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges has hit a multi-year low,” noted Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise. “Nearly 75% of Bitcoin’s total supply is now considered ‘illiquid,’ with less than 14% remaining on exchanges. This growing supply scarcity is fueling the bullish sentiment.”